Demand for the Influenza Vaccine among the Elderly
- Presenter:
Chair: Katherine Swartz; Discussant: Steven Pizer Mon June 5, 2006 17:15-18:45 Room 226
This study examines the determinants of influenza vaccine demand among the elderly U.S. population and it’s effect on the cost and usage of care. The analysis is done using data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). In contrast to other studies that use a non-representative sample and are cross-sectional in nature, MCBS data is a panel and a representative sample of the Medicare population. Influenza or complications arising from it are responsible for a large number of hospitalizations and deaths among the elderly and as such, vaccinations have large potential benefits. I examine the following determinants of demand: the price of the vaccine to the individual which depends on insurance coverage, demographics such as age, race, gender, education and income, family composition such as whether the person lives alone or not, health conditions including chronic ones (e.g, asthma) that may be complicated by influenza. I also examine the effect of an individual’s expectation about the risk of infection. These individual expectations depend on the prevalence of the disease as well as on the individual’s own past experience with the flu and the vaccine on demand. Heterogeneity in expectations could give rise to differences in demand among individuals who are similar in other aspects. This project also studies the effect of getting a flu shot on hospitalizations and on payments by Medicare. I use the fact that Medicare Part B started covering flu shots in 1993 to identify the price elasticity of demand. This is likely to induce demand among part B beneficiaries but not among those with only part A coverage. While, the induced demand would increase payments by Medicare, vaccination itself might reduce hospitalizations and other medical care use. Vaccinations also affect mortality and in turn the cost of care conditional on survival. Thus, the exact impact on Medicare costs and medical care use is not clear without an empirical analysis.
