Economics of Increasing Immunization against Influenza in the US: Assessing Strategies toward Universal Vaccination
- Presenter:
Chair: Noelle-Angelique M. Molinari; Discussant: Megan O'Brien Mon June 5, 2006 15:30-17:00 Room 325
Rates of influenza illness severity and mortality have remained significantly high despite vaccination efforts: about 36,000 deaths and 200,000 hospitalizations are annually attributable to influenza in the US. More effective and extensive vaccination strategies leading to a universal annual vaccination against influenza have been under consideration. Yet, no systematic and comprehensive analyses of their prospective cost and benefits are available. In this study a probabilistic model is built for a US age- and influenza-disease-risk representative population sample to analyze the health and economic impact of strategies increasing actual vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness. Data on disease burden and resource utilization attributable to outpatient care, hospitalizations and deaths in annual epidemics is used in the model, as are estimates of incidence of co morbid conditions and productivity impact of temporal disability or premature death. Scenarios with increasing vaccination are also built and simulated using Monte Carlo algorithms. Among them projected vaccine effectiveness and hypothetical herd immunity impacts in the unvaccinated across age and risk groups are considered. After including vaccination costs and performing simulation analyses this study provides estimated ranges for health outcomes and resource utilization, estimates the potential net health impact and cost value of possible vaccination strategies, assesses the dollar value of prospective vaccination strategies, and evaluates the effects of using different criteria to expand vaccination policies across age and risk groups (e.g., based on risk of death, indirect protection or net economic returns). Sensitivity analyses are also conducted and projections to the US population calculated.
